Friday, April 04, 2008

Outlook for 8s at States

by OTW's favorite forecaster, Jim Nast

Now that Sectionals are behind us, how do things look for the 8s at States? It's hard to get all exact about predictions, of course, but a look at the previous scores can give you an idea.

OTW -- The Level 8 Team racked up a 109.75 team score at the second Sectional. This narrowly edged Atlantic into second place. At the first Sectional, the OTW 8s posted a 108.875. The 8s had improved their Vault since the first Sectional. While still not their strongest event, they had proven they were capable of some big numbers. Bars was respectable, and showed a modest improvement. Beam, was another story. They've shown that they can get the big scores on Beam, but consistency has proven elusive. Floor has typically been their strongest event with several girls frequently scoring in the mid to lower 9s. If the OTW 8s stay on their current improvement curve, they're on track for a team score in the lower to mid 110s. If a couple of their event-stars (who were having somewhat "off" days) hit their skills (as they have in prior meets), this could raise the team total to the high 110s. Good, but not a shoe-in by any means.

Atlantic -- At the second Sectional, the Atlantic 8s turned in a team score of 109.60 -- very close behind the OTW team. In the first Sectional, the Atlantic 8s scored a 105.05, but they were missing one of their high scoring girls. At the second Sectional, they had their high scorer back and all of them had shown improvements. They also had the slight advantage of competing on their home equipment. As before, the Atlantic girls were very strong on Floor and shown marked improvement on Vault. They had improved a bit on Bars, but this was still their weak event. If the Atlantic 8s continue on their current improvement curve, they could be scoring in the high 110s, making them a very tough team to beat.

Gym Village -- At the second Sectional, the GV girls were competitive on Vault. On the Bars and Floor they were not quite as strong, but not too far behind either. Their team score was 108.075. This is up by roughly 3 full points from their first Sectional, so they have clearly been tightening up their routines. Following their improvement curve, GV could be turning in mid 109s. The banner might not be in the cards, but they could be nipping at the 2nd place trophy.

Outlook for the 8s at States? It will be a very close contest between OTW and Atlantic. With less than a quarter point separating them at this point, it could go either way. Both teams are definitely championship material. This promises to be a fascinating State Meet. Every gymnast's performance will be important. Eat a good meal beforehand, gymnastics fans. You won't want to miss any of the action because you were in the snack bar.

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